Speed Presentation 2024 Australian Marine Sciences Association Annual Meeting combined with NZMSS

Impacts of Tropical Cyclones over Australia. A Hazard Management Perspective. (#527)

Adolfo Lugo 1 , Catherine Kim 1 , Scott Bryan 1
  1. Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

Tropical cyclones (TC) may dramatically change coastal and marine ecosystems due to their associated intense but short-lived sea and atmospheric conditions. In Australia, damage by TC has been estimated as $3.2bn for the 2007-2016 period and it is expected to increase in the next decades. Understanding TC recurrence is important as a baseline to assess any changes in frequency and intensity resulting from climate change as well as in improving preparedness and identifying where resources are most needed with growing coastal population centres. In general, TC recurrence in Australia and over adjacent waters varies widely, with regions experiencing just one event in decades to several events in a few years resulting in differing perceptions of risk and concern. Here we determine TC recurrence at the local government area by calculating the return period using a historical dataset (IBTraCS) from 1960 to 2024. We also assessed the modulation of ENSO and MJO in TC formation. Our results indicate that areas with highest return periods included Central Queensland and WA/Kimberley region. We also found that TC formation is enhanced during the MJO active phase, and over the Gulf of Carpentaria during El Niño phase despite an overall decrease in TC formation.