Sagmariasus verreauxi, known as eastern rock lobster (ERL) in Australia and packhorse rock lobster in New Zealand, is a valuable fishery species found on both sides of the Tasman Sea. In NSW the fishery is valued at around A$12M a year, while the fishery is on smaller scales in Victoria, Tasmania and New Zealand.
ERL is known to primarily spawn on the continental shelf along the northern NSW coast and around the top of northern New Zealand, and after hatching the larvae drift into offshore waters where they develop over a period of 8-12 months before returning to settle in shallow coastal waters. The distribution of the species is, thus, sensitive to changes in both ocean circulation and temperature.
In this study we use output from historical and future climate runs of the ACCESS-OM2-01 0.1 degree ocean model and the PARCELS lagrangian tracking toolbox to explore how ERL larval connectivity is likely to change under future climate, with particular attention to the changes to the trans-Tasman pathways and the species range in south-eastern Australia.