Keynote Presentation 2024 Australian Marine Sciences Association Annual Meeting combined with NZMSS

Detecting, attributing, and projecting global marine ecosystem and fisheries change: FishMIP 2.0 (#271)

Julia Blanchard 1 , The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project Community 2
  1. University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
  2. Global Network, Hobart, TAS, Australia

We urgently need models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long-term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world’s fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP  projections have mostly ignored fishing activity due to uneven capabilities to dynamically model fisheries across the FishMIP community. This, in addition to underrepresentation of coastal processes, has limited the ability to evaluate the FishMIP ensemble’s ability to adequately capture past states - a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed two parallel simulation experiments (FishMIP 2.0) on: 1) model evaluation and detection of past changes and 2) future scenarios and projections. Key advances include historical climate forcing, that captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized fishing forcing to systematically test fishing effects across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a key step towards enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections.