Speed Presentation 2024 Australian Marine Sciences Association Annual Meeting combined with NZMSS

Estimating population numbers of the world's largest fish using age-structured demographic modelling (#348)

Lucy M Arrowsmith 1 2 , Michael I Grant 3 , Jo Roman 4 5 , Eve Kinnebrew 6 , Ana M. M. Sequeira 7 , Charitha B Pattiaratchi 2 , Mark G Meekan 2
  1. Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions (DBCA), Kensington, WA, Australia
  2. Oceans Graduate School & UWA Oceans Institute, Perth, WA, Australia
  3. College of Science and Engineering Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
  4. Gund Institute for Environment, Burlington, Vermont, USA
  5. Harvard Radcliffe Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
  6. Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
  7. Division of Ecology and Evolution, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) are large filter-feeding species that have undergone major population declines due to anthropogenic threats, including fishing, climate change and ship strikes over the last century. Despite evidence of declines, it is often difficult to determine population sizes of whale sharks outside of genetics, however, age-structured demographic models can be used to calculate population sizes at present and in the past, overcoming this limitation. Using age-structured demographic modelling we estimate changes in whale shark populations over the last 125 years; coinciding with the expansion of steamships and the first records of whale shark fatalities due to ship strikes. Additionally, using the stable-age distributions from the Leslie Matrix models, we calculate the proportion of population sizes in each age class (i.e. juveniles or adults). Our models estimated that between 1897-2022, whale shark populations have declined by 1,071,428 individuals, resulting in an estimated global population of 375,143 whale sharks today, and of these, ~114,000 were classified as juveniles. Overall, our study identified an alternative approach to estimating the population sizes of whale sharks, highlighting substantial declines in population numbers. Collectively, these methods can be applied to other marine megafauna species, giving potential estimates of population sizes across their distribution.