Standard Presentation 2024 Australian Marine Sciences Association Annual Meeting combined with NZMSS

Modelling climate extremes impacting northern Australian coastal ecosystems: increasing preparedness through adaptive management (#326)

Eva E Plaganyi 1 , Roy A Deng 1 , Nicole Murphy 1 , Laura Blamey 1 , Rob Kenyon 1
  1. CSIRO, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

Northern Australian tropical marine ecosystems support rich biodiversity as well as fisheries that are important economically and socio-culturally. These systems face some unique and increasing challenges in terms of climate extremes in the form of cyclones, El NiƱo Southern Oscillation events, marine heatwaves, changes in sea level height and changing currents. In this talk we provide examples of extreme events that have impacted prawn and lobster fisheries, as well as key habitats (mangroves and seagrass), and summarise management responses to these past events. We show how addressing these complex challenges entailed use of long-term monitoring survey data, climate-linked stock assessment modelling, MSE (Management Strategy Evaluation), MICE (Models of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem assessments) as well as extensive engagement with stakeholders and Torres Strait traditional owners as part of adaptive management feedback loops. Finally, we share learnings from these case studies that are being applied to a new project to understand and build robustness to climate extremes for the Northern Prawn and other Australian fisheries.