Keynote Presentation 2024 Australian Marine Sciences Association Annual Meeting combined with NZMSS

Three Decades of Variability and Warming of Nearshore Waters around Tasmania (#196)

Ken R Ridgway 1 2 , Scott Ling 3
  1. CSIRO, Sandy Bay, TASMANIA, Australia
  2. Environment, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  3. Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

The ocean region around Tasmania forms an interface between major ocean basins and represents a significant global ocean hotspot due to a rate of warming higher than the global average.  We use a high-resolution satellite SST received at local stations (validated against in situ temperature) to explore the seasonal, interannual, decadal variability and long-term trends of SST. The main circulation drivers are the East Australian Current (EAC, east) and Zeehan Current (ZC, west) with peaks in summer and winter. New results include the seasonality of three summer upwelling systems, the first evidence of EAC inflow into eastern Bass Strait, a time series of the endpoint of the ZC/EAC intersection, and a full year description of the ZC, from warm winter inflow transitioning into a cooler than ambient summer intrusion. We identify two modes of low frequency SST variability associated with the EAC (63%) and the ZC (12%).  Multi-decadal warming trends occur in all regions, with nearshore values of order 0.40°C decade-1 up to a peak of 0.55°C decade-1 on the west coast.  SST trends in the eastern shelf arise from intrusions of EAC waters, with local processes (suppression of upwelling and outflow from Macquarie Harbour) driving trends in the west.