Standard Presentation 2024 Australian Marine Sciences Association Annual Meeting combined with NZMSS

Climate Change Risk Assessment of Terrestrially-breeding Marine Predators (#136)

Milan Sojitra 1 , Stuart Corney 1 , Mark Hemer 2 , Sheryl Hamilton 1 3 , Julie McInnes 1 , Sam Thalmann 3 , Mary-Anne Lea 1 4
  1. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  2. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  3. Marine Conservation Program, Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  4. Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Globally, land-dependent marine predators have experienced shifts in distribution, prey availability, breeding phenology, and population dynamics due to climate change. These species are central-place foragers during the breeding season, making them highly susceptible to any marine and terrestrial environment changes. While ecologists have developed risk assessments for other contexts, these often lack critical breeding biology data. We developed a trait-based risk assessment to quantify climate risk, identify species-specific threats, and establish an adaptable framework. We assessed vulnerability, exposure, and hazard criteria for 56 species in Australia territory, integrating a systematic literature review with expert elicitation for hazard component. Shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta), southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome), Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), and Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) were ranked with high climate urgency. Species breeding in lower latitudes and those in Otariidae, Diomedeidae, and Spheniscidae were particularly at risk. Key climate hazards identified were extreme weather events, changes in habitat suitability, and prey availability. We emphasise the need for further research, focusing on at-risk species and knowledge gaps (less-studied criteria, and/or species) to enhance robustness. Our findings inform conservation efforts, as monitoring and implementing climate adaptation strategies for terrestrially-breeding marine predators are more feasible during the breeding season.