Standard Presentation 2024 Australian Marine Sciences Association Annual Meeting combined with NZMSS

It’s the end of the world as we know it: Australia’s marine climate refugia projected to disappear after 2050 (#138)

Alice M. Pidd 1 , David S. Schoeman 1 , Anthony J. Richardson 2 3 , Kylie L. Scales 1
  1. School of Science, Technology and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, QLD, Australia
  2. School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  3. CSIRO Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

This century, aggregate climate risks will likely outpace the adaptive capacity of some species, rendering existing marine protected area (MPA) boundaries ineffective in the long-term. To better represent ecological reality, climate refugia, often defined by slower rates of warming or more stable conditions, should consider additional climate metrics over multi-decadal timescales. Here, we project six climate metrics across IPCC-AR6 emissions scenarios to identify multivariate climate refugia within Australia’s existing MPAs. MPAs in north-western and eastern Australia are projected to be the most exposed to aggregate climate risks throughout the century. Climate velocities consistently exceed 350 km/decade in parts of the north-west and Coral Sea, with some south-eastern MPAs >600 km/decade. Cumulative marine heatwave intensity is greatest in latitudes south of 28°S, diverging most notably from 2050 across scenarios. While low emissions scenarios suggest that many refugia will be retained until 2100, scenarios consistent with current emissions reductions commitments indicate a nationwide disappearance of thermal refugia during 2041-2060. Our findings confirm that a substantial proportion of Australia’s MPAs lack long-term climate resilience, suggesting a reconfiguration of MPAs to a climate-smart network might be needed to conserve marine biodiversity in an increasingly warmer, acidified, deoxygenated ocean.