Standard Presentation 2024 Australian Marine Sciences Association Annual Meeting combined with NZMSS

Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties (#67)

Kieran Murphy 1 2 , Denisse Fierro Arcos 2 3 , Tyler Rohr 1 2 4 , David Green 1 2 , Camilla Novaglio 2 , Katy Baker 2 4 , Kelly Ortega-Cisneros 5 , Tyler D Eddy 6 , Cheryl S Harrison 7 , Simeon L Hill 8 , Patrick Keith 8 9 , Camila Cataldo-Mendez 2 4 , Colleen M Petrik 10 , Matthew Pinkerton 11 , Paul Spence 1 2 3 12 , Ilaria Stollberg 2 , Roshni Subramaniam 13 14 , Rowan Trebilco 13 , Vivitskaia Tulloch 15 , Juliano Palacios Abrantes 16 , Sophie Bestley 1 2 4 , Daniele Bianchi 17 , Philip Boyd 1 2 4 , Pearse J Buchanan 13 , Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz 6 , Marta Coll 18 , Stuart Corney 2 4 , Samik Datta 11 , Jason D Everett 19 20 21 22 , Romain Forestier 2 , Beth Fulton 13 14 , Ben Galton-Fenzi 1 4 23 , Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais 17 24 , Ryan Heneghan 20 21 25 , Julia G Mason 26 , Olivier Maury 27 , Clive R McMahon 28 , Eugene Murphy 8 , Anthony J Richardson 20 21 25 , Derek P Tittensor 29 , Scott Spillias 13 , Jeroen Steenbeek 30 , Devi Veytia 31 , Julia Blanchard 1 2 14
  1. Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
  2. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
  3. Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Hobart, TAS, Australia
  4. Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
  5. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
  6. Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Memorial University, St John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
  7. Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge
  8. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge
  9. University of Essex, Colchester
  10. University of California San Diego, San Diego
  11. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington
  12. Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Weather of the 21st Century, University of Tasmania, Hobart
  13. CSIRO Environment, Hobart
  14. Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart
  15. Basin-scale Events to Coastal Impacts (BECI), North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), Sidney
  16. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles
  17. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver
  18. Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona
  19. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science (CBCS), The University of Queensland, St Lucia
  20. School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, St Lucia
  21. CSIRO Environment, St Lucia
  22. School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney
  23. Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston
  24. INRAE, Rennes
  25. Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, University of New South Wales, Sydney
  26. Environmental Defense Fund, Boston
  27. University of Montpellier, Montpellier
  28. IMOS Animal Tagging, Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Chowder Bay
  29. Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax
  30. Ecopath International Initiative (EII) Research Association, Barcelona
  31. Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB), The Foundation for Biodiversity Research, Montpellier

Climate change could irreversibly alter Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can help policymakers by projecting future changes and assessing management approaches. However, projections from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble reveal an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating a need for a region-specific ensemble. Significant model uncertainty arises from the Earth system models (ESMs) used to drive FishMIP models, particularly regarding future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea-ice coverage. To enhance confidence in regional MEMs as tools for ecosystem-based management in a changing climate, we propose developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) as part of the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. A key challenge is balancing global standardized inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol that builds on and extends the FishMIP framework. This includes: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extending fishing data to include whaling, and new simulations assessing ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These efforts will improve assessments of climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.