Standard Presentation 2024 Australian Marine Sciences Association Annual Meeting combined with NZMSS

Queensland’s coastal aquaculture at risk from sea level rise (#22)

Marina Christofidis 1 2 , Mitchell Lyons 3 , Caitie Kuempel 1
  1. Coastal and Marine Research Centre, Australian Rivers Institute, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, 4111, Australia, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia
  2. Ministry of Management and Innovation in Public Services (MGI), Brasilia, DF, Brazil
  3. Sustainable Development Reform Hub- Faculty of Law & Justice, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Aquaculture is crucial to livelihoods and food security globally, promising to meet growing human seafood and protein demand without surpassing environmental limits. However, the aquaculture industry is vulnerable to climate change including sea level rise. Queensland is the third largest aquaculture producer in Australia, largely consisting of coastal pond-based production. Nevertheless, Queensland is also predicted to experience a 0.8m sea level rise by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Here, we assess the exposure of Queensland’s coastal terrestrial aquaculture industry to sea level rise using existing datasets on coastal inundation and erosion from sea level rise combined with novel, satellite-derived data on current aquaculture production locations and identified aquaculture development areas. We found that over 1/3 of currently producing aquaculture leases are at risk and ¼ of development areas may be unsuitable for aquaculture due to their very high exposure to floods. We also found that nearly all prawn leases are expected to be impacted. Our results demonstrate how sea level rise threatens aquaculture industry assets, with the potential to generate socio-economic repercussions in Queensland. These results can inform future planning and adaptation measures to minimise losses.